老年人劳动参与对子代生育决策的影响

The Impacts of Elderly Labor Participation on Their Offspring's Fertility Decision Making

摘要:

在我国人口负增长和快速老龄化背景下，提高生育率防止人口数量过快下滑迫在眉睫。然而， 随着老年人健康水平的提升和寿命的延长以及文化教育素质的不断提升，老年人延迟退休或者再就业也处于快速 发展中。本研究在对相关理论进行分析的基础上，利用 CFPS2018 年和 2020 年的数据，实证检验了老年人劳动 参与对子代生育决策的影响。研究发现:第一，老年人劳动参与通过减少隔代照料对子代生育决策产生抑制作用; 第二，老年人劳动参与通过对子代提供经济支持显著促进子代的生育决策;第三，以上两种相反作用，导致我 国老年人劳动参与总体上对子代生育决策的影响并不显著，二者并不存在非此即彼的关系。鉴于此，研究建议， 在人口负增长和人口老龄化的大背景下，要充分开发老年人力资源，适当增加对生育家庭的补贴，使提高老年 人劳动参与率和提升生育率获得平衡发展。

Abstract:

In the context of negative population growth and rapid aging in China, it is urgent to increase fertility rates to prevent the rapid population decline. However, with the improvement of the elderly's health and lifespan, and the continuous improvement of cultural and educational qualifications, the delay of retirement or re-employment of the elderly is also developing rapidly. Based on the analysis of relevant theories and using data from CFPS 2018 and 2020, this study empirically tests the impacts of elderly labor participation on their offspring's fertility decision making. The study finds that elderly labor participation has an inhibitory effect on their offspring's fertility decision making by reducing intergenerational caregiving. On the other hand, it significantly promotes their offspring's fertility decision making through economic support. These two opposite effects result in an overall insignificant impact of the elderly labor participation on their offspring's fertility decision making, indicating that there is no either/or relationship between the two. The study suggests that in the context of negative population growth and aging, it is necessary to fully develop human resources of the elderly and appropriately increase subsidies for fertility families to balance the development of increasing elderly labor participation and fertility rates.