数字经济如何影响人口高质量发展? ——基于劳动力市场化调节效应的动态分析

The Impact of the Digital Economy on High-Quality Population Development —A Dynamic Analysis Based on the Moderating Eff ect of Labor Marketization

摘要:

数字经济时代，劳动力市场发生了深刻变革，对人口高质量发展产生了重大影响。研究基于2011—2020 年全国31个省份的面板数据，利用双向固定效应模型，检验数字经济对人口高质量发展的影响。研 究发现：数字经济对人口高质量发展的影响显著为正，劳动力市场化在数字经济对人口高质量发展的影响中呈现正调节效应；新质生产力促进了数字经济在推动人口高质量发展方面的关键作用；异质性分析表明，数字经济对发展程度较高和较低省份表现出负向影响，对发展程度处于中间水平的省份的人口高质量发展呈现显著促进作用，而劳动力市场化对发展程度较高的省份表现出边际效应递减的趋势，数字经济、劳动力市场化程度和两者的交互项对不同劳动力市场化程度省份的人口高质量发展均存在显著正向效应。研究建议，要进一步深化劳动力市场改革，培育高素质和高技能劳动者，并引导其根据市场机制合理流动，持续提升人口质量。

Abstract:

The development of the digital economy has signifi cantly impacted migrant workers' employment. This study utilizes data from the Chinese Social Survey (2013-2023) and years of the "China Statistical Yearbook", constructing a multilevel Logistic regression model to verify the relationship between the level of digital economy and the quality employment of migrant workers. The fi ndings reveal that an elevated digital economy level promotes high-quality employment for migrant workers, though effects differ across various groups. The digital economy can moderate individual-level factors affecting high-quality employment, reducing employment quality disparities among different migrant worker groups. The development of the digital economy enhances high-quality employment through information symmetry and industrial upgrading effects. Its impact on high-quality employment markedly varies across regions and industries, especially being more pronounced among eastern regions and service sector workers. Thus, the study suggests there should be a signifi cant strengthening of digital economy infrastructure construction, reduce regional disparities in the quality of employment for migrant workers, and improve digital governance systems to promote high-quality employment for migrant workers.